FIFA World Cup 2018 (Part 2) – Quarters Predictions

Quarter_Predictions

Previous article here : https://kerpanic.wordpress.com/2018/06/27/world-cup-2018-the-final-16-predictions/

Data obtained from here : https://www.kaggle.com/agostontorok/soccer-world-cup-2018-winner/data

All code here : https://github.com/lppier/fifa18_final16

Enhancements

  • Matches that resulted in a draw are no longer considered, as in the final 16 knockout stage, there is no draw.
  • One hot encoding is used to remove possibility that model might consider the team number a ranked value.
  • Added latest results from the new matches played so far into the data!
  • Added an ensemble voting classifier aggregating results between kNN, Adaboost and Neural Networks

Metrics from kNN Classifier Model

area under curve: 0.8912393162393163
accuracy: 0.8893333333333333
precision: [ 0.84711779  0.93732194]
recall: [ 0.93888889  0.84358974]
fscore: [ 0.89064559  0.8879892 ]
kNN Quarters Prediction
1 means a win for the 1st country.
France vs Argentina : 0
Uruguay vs Portugal : 0
Spain vs Russia : 1
Croatia vs Denmark : 1
Brazil vs Mexico : 1
Belgium vs Japan : 1
Sweden vs Switzerland : 0
Colombia vs England : 0

Metrics from Adaboost Model

area under curve: 0.8912393162393163
accuracy: 0.8893333333333333
precision: [ 0.84711779  0.93732194]
recall: [ 0.93888889  0.84358974]
fscore: [ 0.89064559  0.8879892 ]
Adaptive Boosting Prediction
1 means a win for the 1st country.
France vs Argentina : 0
Uruguay vs Portugal : 0
Spain vs Russia : 1
Croatia vs Denmark : 0
Brazil vs Mexico : 0
Belgium vs Japan : 1
Sweden vs Switzerland : 0
Colombia vs England : 1

Metrics from Neural Networks Model

area under curve: 0.8912393162393163
accuracy: 0.8893333333333333
precision: [ 0.84711779  0.93732194]
recall: [ 0.93888889  0.84358974]
fscore: [ 0.89064559  0.8879892 ]

Neural Networks Quarters Prediction
1 means a win for the 1st country.
France vs Argentina : 0
Uruguay vs Portugal : 0
Spain vs Russia : 1
Croatia vs Denmark : 0
Brazil vs Mexico : 1
Belgium vs Japan : 1
Sweden vs Switzerland : 0
Colombia vs England : 0

Voting Ensemble Results

Basically, among the three classifiers, majority wins. It’s interesting to note that Adaptive Boosting actually predicted that Brazil will lose, but the majority votes Brazil will win.

A similar situation is in Croatia vs Denmark. Majority votes are for Denmark to win.

Ensemble Prediction (Voting scheme, followed by averaging among the 3 models)
1 means a win for the 1st country using voting scheme.
France vs Argentina : 0 Probability 0.7537506238216767
Uruguay vs Portugal : 0 Probability 0.5634269455951803
Spain vs Russia : 1 Probability 0.8396692244968408
Croatia vs Denmark : 0 Probability 0.4291791223437185 <- Probability here suggests different result from voting!
Brazil vs Mexico : 1 Probability 0.8330163908699761
Belgium vs Japan : 1 Probability 0.8396997204649211
Sweden vs Switzerland : 0 Probability 0.6988071986353249
Colombia vs England : 0 Probability 0.5637759883599832

It’ll be fun to see how it goes!

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